Navigating Nuclear Development

The journey towards nuclear power is a complex undertaking, and the IAEA’s Milestones Approach has emerged as a crucial framework for nations embarking on this intricate path. For many of them — from newcomers like Ghana and Estonia to established players seeking expansion or strategic planning — the structured nature of the Milestones Approach has proven to be versatile and indispensable.

The IAEA’s Milestones Approach is a phased and comprehensive method designed to assist countries in developing their nuclear power programmes. The method is instrumental, providing a roadmap for nations from the early stages of considering nuclear power to the operational phase, a process which spans approximately 10–15 years.

Seth Kofi Debrah from the Ghana Atomic Energy Commission (GAEC) provides insights into the significance of the Milestones Approach: “The Milestones Approach provides a very high-level roadmap and guidance on how to prepare. For a newcomer country, developing such a major infrastructure project is challenging. The Milestones Approach provides a comprehensive formal structure to develop it”.

Ghana, one of the countries set to embrace nuclear power, has established the Ghana Nuclear Power Programme Organization (GNPPO) to coordinate preparatory activities. The country’s 15-year roadmap, structured around the three-phases of the IAEA’s Milestones Approach, envisages adding 700–1000 megawatt (electrical) (MW(e)) to the national grid by 2030.

Estonia, on the other hand, is also eyeing nuclear power as a reliable and low-carbon option. Reelika Runnel, Coordinator of the Estonian Nuclear Energy Working Group, emphasizes how the Milestones Approach gave them a starting point: “It provides an overview of how much work is needed to establish a nuclear programme and encompasses all topics related to nuclear power. It reassures decision-makers at the political level that they can make decisions based on the experiences of the IAEA, drawing on many Member States’ experiences”.

As the energy landscape evolves, traditional large-scale nuclear power projects are in part giving way to small modular reactors (SMRs). Estonia, recognizing this shift, is exploring SMRs given the limitations on accommodating large reactors in its relatively small electricity grid. “The Milestones Approach is also fully applicable to SMRs. Even though the concept of SMRs differs from conventional reactors, the same set of regulations are applicable,” says Runnel.

Seth Kofi Debrah echoes this sentiment, emphasizing that the Milestones Approach remains a crucial tool regardless of size: “Whether big or small, you will need the Milestones as guidance. The government needs to decide and establish necessary laws and regulations, and an operator to finance and run the reactor is needed, just like for larger reactors. It is all there, and the Milestones Approach remains a useful tool for embarking countries”.

SMRs are nuclear installations and in that regard the 19 infrastructure issues of the Milestones Approach generally apply. However, an upcoming revised version of Milestones in the Development of a National Infrastructure for Nuclear Power — the guidance publication for the Milestones Approach  — addresses aspects of infrastructure that can be implemented or considered differently in the context of SMR deployment, where appropriate. The publication has a separate annex setting out the specific infrastructure considerations for SMRs.

SMRs also differ from their larger ‘siblings’ in that reactors were traditionally built and operated in one country. By contrast, the modular construction method of SMRs means that they can be constructed in one country and shipped, assembled and operated in another. This means that applicable requirements may need to become part of a more internationalized system in which there is agreement and mutual recognition of regulations among stakeholders. In this regard, the Milestones Approach works in synergy with the IAEA’s Nuclear Harmonization and Standardization Initiative (NHSI).

Initially designed for countries embarking on nuclear programmes, the Milestones Approach is proving to be equally relevant to established players looking to optimize or strategically plan their nuclear capabilities. Aline des Cloizeaux, the Director of the Division of Nuclear Power at the IAEA, points out its role in evaluating nuclear infrastructure: “We observe that in Europe right now several countries intend to restart projects or expand existing projects. The Milestones Approach methodology can help with the evaluation of their current nuclear infrastructure”.

Even for countries with nuclear operating experience, when building new reactors it is beneficial to reassess the maturity of their existing infrastructure issues for the end of Phase 2 to see if they have gaps compared to the level that the IAEA recommends before starting construction. Whenever gaps are identified, the IAEA can support expanding countries in areas such as supply chains, energy grids, human resources and other aspects of the broader infrastructure.

The adaptability and versatility of the Milestones Approach becomes even more relevant in light of the IAEA's annual nuclear power outlook, which projects a significant increase in installed nuclear capacity to 890 gigawatts (GW) by 2050, highlighting the sector’s potential contribution to achieving net zero emissions. This trend is set to increase: leaders from 22 countries on four continents came together on 2 December 2023 to announce a declaration to advance a global aspirational goal of tripling global nuclear energy capacity by 2050. Around 30 countries will participate in the first ever Nuclear Energy Summit, to be held in Brussels in March 2024 and co-chaired by IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi and Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, emphasizing the renewed momentum in nuclear power.

The adaptability and versatility of the Milestones Approach mean that it will continue to be important in shaping the future of nuclear energy and its essential contribution to addressing global challenges such as reducing fossil fuel consumption and enhancing energy security.