Waste Technology Section

Underground Research Facilities Network (URF)

Regional Training Course On Identifying And Managing Uncertainty For Post-Closure Safety Assessment In Support Of Repository Development Programmes

18—22 June 2012, Lisbon, Portugal

Held jointly with DISPONET

day 1

Welcome, introduction to course

Introduction to uncertainty

Uncertainty in radioactive waste repository management

International standards and regulatory requirements

Overview of main elements in a disposal safety case

Overview of safety assessment approaches and methodologies

day 2

Introduction to exercise

Describing uncertain variables

Exercise – describing uncertain variables

Uncertainty in conceptual models and scenarios

Expert judgment and Bayesian updating

day 3

Propagation of uncertainty through calculations

Exercise – Propagating uncertainty in calculations

Exercise – Uncertainty in conceptual models

Exercise – Uncertainty in scenarios

day 4

Exercise – Summarise uncertainty in assessment, present and discuss

Strategies for treatment of uncertainty
and discussion

day 5

Examples of how uncertainty has been managed and communicated

Exercise – Develop a plan for managing uncertainty

Discussion of work activities

Course summary

Group Picture taken at the Regional Training Course on Identifying and Managing Uncertainty for Post-Closure Safety Assessment in Support of Repository Development Programmes - 18—22 June, Lisbon, Portugal

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