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Conference Article: Statistical considerations of graphite strength for assessing design allowable stresses

Abstract

Several aspects of statistics need to be considered to determine design allowable stresses for graphite structures. These include: 1) Statistical variation of graphite material strength. 2) Uncertainty of calculated stress. 3) Reliability (survival probability) required from operational and safety performance of graphite structures. This paper deals with some statistical considerations of structural graphite for assessing design allowable stress. Firstly, probability distribution functions of tensile and compressive strengths are investigated on experimental Very High Temperature candidated graphites. Normal, logarithmic normal and Weibull distribution functions are compared in terms of coefficient of correlation to measured strength data. This leads to the adaptation of normal distribution function. Then, the relation between factor of safety and fracture probability is discussed on the following items: 1) As the graphite strength is more variable than metalic material's strength, the effect of strength variation to the fracture probability is evaluated. 2) Fracture probability depending on survival probability of 99 approx 99.9 (%) with confidence level of 90 approx 95 (%) is discussed. 3) As the material properties used in the design analysis are usually the mean values of their variation, the additional effect of these variations on the fracture probability is discussed. Finally, the way to assure the minimum ultimate strength with required survival probability with confidence level is discussed in view of statistical treatment of the strength data from varying sample numbers in a material acceptance test.

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Reference:

Specialists' meeting on graphite component structural design, JAERI Tokai (Japan), September 8-11, 1986

International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna (Austria). International Working Group on Gas-Cooled Reactors

IWGGCR--11, pp:69-74