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Conference Article: Evaluating The PBMR Main Power System Turbo Machines With The Aid Of Sensitivity and Monte Carlo Analyses

Erik van der Linde, PBMR (Pty) Ltd, Centurion, SOUTH AFRICA

Abstract

Sensitivity and Monte Carlo analyses are performed on the turbo machines of the PBMR Main Power System (MPS). The purpose of the study is twofold. Firstly, to highlight the MPS parameters that have the biggest influence on the turbo machines, as well as the extent of this influence. Secondly, the results are used to evaluate the present turbo machine design: Do the results fall within the present operational envelope or is a turbo machine design change required? The turbo machine parameters used as evaluating criteria are the turbo unit rotational speed, the compressor surge margins, the grid power produced and the net cycle efficiency. Four operating steady states, which encompass the plant operating envelope, are evaluated. The following tools are used: a proprietary fast solving network Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code that solves conservation of mass, energy and momentum equations. In order to automate the process of solving thousands of steady states, additional code was developed in Matlab, which was also used to process the output data. This paper briefly describes the type and origin of the uncertainty parameters identified and how these parameters are varied. The application of variance distributions used, e.g. normal, triangular and uniform distributions, is also mentioned. The paper concludes with some key results, for example the list of most sensitive parameters identified and the fact that the results verify the robustness of the PBMR MPS is discussed.

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key words: PBMR, turbo machines, sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo analysis
Reference:
Proceedings of the Conference on High Temperature Reactors, Beijing, China, September, 22-24, 2004
International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna (Austria)
HTR-2004, pp:1-11