Sessions of the Scientific Forum

The Scientific Forum will allow Member States and international organisations, including industry and NGOs, to present their viewpoints on the role they envisage for nuclear power in the future, the main issues hindering or facilitating this role, and international co-operation in the field of nuclear power. The topic of the Scientific Forum will be introduced by presenting the world energy outlook and sustainable development issues linked to energy needs.

The Scientific Forum will be organized in three sessions with a concluding panel discussion, each lasting three hours (from 10:00 to 13:00 and from 15:00 to 18:00). The following topics will be addressed:

Session I: Energy and Sustainable Development Tuesday morning Moderator: Mr. Reinhard Loosch, Former Chairman, IAEA Board of Governors

Topic 1: Nuclear Power in the World Energy Outlook Mr. Robert J. Priddle, Executive Director, International Energy Agency

Abstract: This paper discusses the outlook for nuclear power in the context of the IEA’s analysis of the world energy outlook to the year 2020. It also discusses the implications of three major policy themes of particular relevance today: sustainability, climate change and electricity market competition. The IEA world energy model is used to build a future projection taking, as its starting point, continuity of current trends and government policies ("business-as-usual"). On this basis, world energy demand grows by 65% over the period 1995-2020 and 95% of the additional demand over the period is met by fossil fuels. Two thirds of the increase in demand arises outside the industrialized world. The paper looks particularly at the prospects for world electricity generation, focusing on the nuclear component – its extent and geographical spread. Starting from current political restraints on nuclear generation in some countries and the comparative generating costs of new power plants, nuclear generation is then considered against the criteria for sustainable development, competitiveness in liberalised electricity markets and the possible consequences of the establishment of a "carbon-value" as a result of implementation of the Kyoto protocol. Provided certain known obstacles can be overcome, the message for nuclear power is by no means negative.

Topic 2: Sustainable Energy Development, Economics and Externalities Mr. Hans-Holger Rogner, IAEA

Abstract: Assessing the nuclear power option for sustainable energy development must be done in comparison and in perspective with its own risks and benefits as well as those of the various alternative energy options. It has to be unequivocally noted that there is no energy source or energy conversion technology that does not adversely affect the environment, is absolutely risk-free, safe, secure and reliable, and at the same time maximizes socioeconomic efficiency. Nuclear power, like all other electricity generating options, has its advantages and disadvantages. Fossil fuels can have significant damaging impacts locally, regionally and globally. Hydroelectric, while relatively kind to the atmosphere, can be much less considerate to the Earth and its inhabitants both locally and regionally. Renewables are not without their impact, although they are more local in nature. Nuclear power, despite being a quasi-emission-free electricity source, is dismissed in many countries as a viable generating option because of public opposition to its use and concerns about its economic necessity. During this Scientific Forum nuclear power will be discussed around six compatibility criteria for sustainable energy development: Environmental compatibility; Intergenerational compatibility; Economic compatibility; Demand compatibility; Sociopolitical compatibility; and Geopolitical compatibility. This presentation briefly introduces the concept of sustainable development on the basis of these criteria and then focuses on economic compatibility of nuclear power and the impact of externalities. Nuclear’s advantages have traditionally been its low fuel and operating costs, environmental benefits and energy security considerations. These characteristics and solid government support have traditionally offset the disadvantages of high capital costs and long lead times for NPP construction. More recently, nuclear power plants have been operating in increasingly competitive and restructured, deregulated markets. They compete for markets and for financing and investment funds with other generating technologies and with alternative-energy projects where shareholder values and economic risk dominate the decision-making process. Nuclear power’s comparative advantages are shrinking for a variety of reasons: growing nuclear technology costs, expanded availability of low-cost coal and gas, changes in market structures and operations, and technological and efficiency gains in rival generating technologies. Without overwhelming countervailing benefits, the high-capital costs of new nuclear plants, along with their limited flexibility and load following capabilities, constitute barriers to the future use of nuclear power in competitive markets, where investment is made on a commercial basis and focuses on profitability. Because largely depreciated, existing well-run nuclear plants operate profitably even in competitive markets. Nuclear power’s economic competitiveness could improve if external costs are internalised. External costs of energy are generally not reflected in the market price of energy, and typically include the monetary values of local and regional environmental and health impacts caused by effluents from fuel production and conversion. Internalisation means including these costs directly in the pricing of energy. Most impacts of nuclear power, except for severe accidents, have already been internalised as part of nuclear generation costs. Not so for fossil fuels, whose external costs are significant, particularly for health impacts. Since environmental protection increasingly relies on internalisation as the most efficient means of pollution control, this implies an increase in fossil-fuel-fired generating costs. Of special interest to Member States will be the Clean Development Mechanism, as well as the other soft mechanisms to meet the agreed emission targets while involving developing countries.

Topic 3: Global Development and Nuclear Power in the 21st Century Mr. E.O. Adamov, Minister of the Russian Federation for Atomic Energy

Abstract: Of all the varied challenges facing Mankind in the 21st century the most pressing are the following two interrelated problems: the non-proliferation issue; the problem of fuel resources. These challenges must be addressed without compromising environmental issues. Nuclear power has the potential to solve these problems using new nuclear technologies. Technological support for the non- proliferation regime: reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel without the extraction of plutonium; renunciation of uranium blankets used in the production of weapons-grade plutonium; conversion of thermal reactors to Th-U closed-fuel cycle balanced by the production and use of U-233 without its extraction; renunciation of uranium enrichment and fissile materials (Pu and U-233) extraction technologies (technological ground for total prohibition of nuclear weapons). The policy of stopping further fast reactor development and, at the same time, closing the fuel cycle is intrinsically inconsistent. Motivated on the one hand by non-proliferation considerations, this policy also promotes the development of technologies that undermine this regime in Asian countries interested in having nuclear power. If we keep nuclear power development at the present level of technology, the problem of fuel resources will develop into an issue of closing the LWR fuel cycle on the basis of MOX fuel. Multi-recycling of the plutonium produced in LWRs will completely prevent any large-scale energy development based on fast reactors. If nuclear power develops, the problem of fuel resources can be resolved by taking new-generation fast reactors with a closed fuel cycle as the basis for a large-scale energy system. Russia proposes addressing these problems through united efforts within the framework of an international project.

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